Bitcoin USD Closing Price (BTC-USD) Comparison Using Simple Moving Average And Radial Basis Function Neural Network Methods
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Abstract
Bitcoin is a decentralized electronic money that is not controlled nor insured by a central authority. Because it is still a young system, the price of Bitcoin is extremely unpredictable, making Bitcoin users and investors uneasy. A typical difficulty for investors and traders is predicting the future movement of the value of Bitcoin electronic money based on historical data. Because investors and traders only notice swings in global currency prices and make Bitcoin buy/sell decisions instinctively, they frequently make the erroneous buy/sell decisions. Many investors and traders suffered significant losses as a result of this error. Losses can be reduced by employing an algorithm that predicts the movement of the value of Bitcoin electronic money. Using a comparison of two methodologies, the Simple Moving Average and RBFNN, we will anticipate the closing price of Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) from January 1, 2021 to January 31, 2021. The results obtained using the simple moving average method MSE = 0.01 percent and MAPE = 36.67 percent, and the results obtained using the RBFNN method MSE = 9.97 x 10-7 and MAPE = 9.97 x 10-5, indicating that the RBFNN method with an accuracy rate of 99.9995 percent is better than the simple moving average method in forecasting the closing price of bitcoin.
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Accepted 2022-04-22
Published 2022-05-31
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